Race of loksabha election 2019 begins. While, the poll pundits are already out there with their bets, one overwhelming narrative is that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be forming the government for the second consecutive term. Even on social media campaign is on with the magical number of above 350 or 400. However, it won’t be that easy.
Before jumping on any conclusion the numbers of last five years. Though last two years are matter of concern for rulling Party. In terms of rulling states it has come down to 15 from 19.
In 2014, the BJP emerged with a majority and formed the government. In the state elections thereafter the BJP spread far and wide, forming governments in state after state. At one point—in 2017—the BJP ruled 19 states. However, in the last two years the political graph of the country has changed. And at the receiving end of this has been the BJP.
BJP is now ruling in 15 states, either itself or in alliance with the NDA. In 2014, the party ruled in just seven states. However, among the total 15 states that the BJP rules right now, it formed the government with its own capacity—surprisingly—in just five states. The rest 10 states, the BJP has an alliance with its allies. On the contrary, its main rival, the Congress, has a government on its own in four states.
Before the 2014 elections, the Congress, either itself or in an alliance, held power in 14 states. That number has come down to six. But the recent wins in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh have given the grand old party some confidence before the Lok Sabha polls.
The six states, however, where the Congress is in power sends 107 MPs—Punjab (13), Rajasthan (25), Madhya Pradesh (29), Chhattisgarh (11), Karnataka (28) and Puducherry (1)—to the Lok Sabha.
The total Lok Sabha seats in the BJP/NDA ruled fourteen states is 252.
Inspite of these facts, there are several figures that depict a curious picture of ongoing political war of retaining power for the BJP. The card of patriotism is already out to convert novice sentiment into vote. Where it will work or not will come out on 23 May.